Sunday, May 30, 2010

Gbp/usd Weekly Outlook: May 31-june 4

The pound hovered near a 14-month low against the U.S. dollar last week, bouncing briefly on Thursday only to fall back on fears over Europe's debt crisis and in the wake of disappointing U.K. economic data.

GBP/USD rose from Tuesday's low of 1.4258 to hit an 8-day high at 1.4606 on Thursday, before retreating to reach 1.4453 at the close of trade, slipping 0.02% on a weekly basis.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.4229, the low of May 20 and a 14-month low, and resistance at 1.4917, the high of May 13.

Sterling's decline versus the dollar also came after Fitch Ratings cut Spain's credit rating, renewing concerns that other heavily indebted euro zone members will suffer the same fate as Greece.

Next week, key data will be published on the U.K. housing market, manufacturing sector and services sector. Reports will also be released on the U.K. construction industry and the level of credit available to British consumers.

In the United States, meanwhile, important data will be released on nonfarm unemployment and initial jobless claims, as well as on the country's manufacturing sector and housing market. Reports will also be published on U.S. hourly earnings, construction spending, vehicle sales, factory orders and crude oil inventories. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, is also due to speak at a public engagement.

Ahead of the coming week, Forex Pros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect GBP/USD.

Monday, May 31

Bernanke is scheduled to speak at an event in Seoul. Traders are likely to scrutinize his comments for clues to future shifts in monetary policy.

Banks in Britain and the United States will be closed as the countries hold bank holidays.

Tuesday, June 1

The marketing research firm Markit will publish a key report on Britain's manufacturing sector, based on a survey of purchasing managers. The results of the survey – which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories – are seen as a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. will publish a report on spending in the construction sector. An industry group, the Institute for Supply Management, will later publish an important report on the U.S. manufacturing sector based on a survey of purchasing managers.

Wednesday, June 2

Markit will publish a report on the British construction industry, based on a survey of purchasing managers. The Bank of England will also release data on net lending to individuals and final mortgage approvals in Britain.

Later in the day, an industry group will release a report on U.S. pending home sales, a leading indicator of economic health. The report, which excludes new construction, measures the change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction.

Thursday, June 3

A U.K. industry group will then publish a report on British house prices, an important gauge of the housing market's health. Markit will later release data on the British services sector, based on a survey of purchasing managers.

The U.S. Department of Labor will release data on labor efficiency when producing goods, excluding the farming industry. The data processing firm ADP will publish a closely watched report on U.S. nonfarm employment change.

The U.S. will then release key data on initial jobless claims, an important indicator of overall economic health. The U.S. will also publish a report on the cost of labor, again excluding the farming industry. Later in the day, Bernanke is scheduled to speak at an event in Detroit.

Friday, June 4

The U.S. will publish key employment data in a report on nonfarm payrolls, a leading indicator of consumer spending and overall economic health. The country will also announce its unemployment rate.

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